The Last 10 Metres: A Promised Peace in Ukraine Meets the Wall of Russian Demands
There is a moment in every long race when the finish line first comes into view. The crowd’s noise fades into a buzz. The ache in your legs sharpens. Everything narrows to that final, exhausting stretch. For the United States’ top diplomat on Ukraine, that moment is now. The finish line, he says, is right there.
But in this race, there are two runners. And the other one, watching from Moscow, is not yet ready to sprint. He is insisting the track itself must change.
This is the story of a peace deal that is, depending on whom you ask, just within grasp or still a world away. It is a story of an American president wanting a legacy, a diplomat making a final push, and a Russian government speaking in a language of power. It is the latest, tense chapter in a war that has reshaped Europe.
The hopeful news came from U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg. Appointed by President Donald Trump, Kellogg is set to leave his job in January. Speaking at a gathering of national security leaders, he made a striking claim. After years of bloodshed in Ukraine, a deal to end the fighting is “really close.”
He used a simple sports idea everyone can understand. “We’re in the last 10 metres,” Kellogg said. “And the last 10 metres of these negotiations are always the hardest.” In his view, only two major issues now stand between war and peace. He did not name them publicly, but for years, the world has known the main problems. They are the status of eastern Ukraine, known as the Donbas, and the fate of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Russia took in 2014.
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For President Trump, this potential deal is everything. He has often said he wants to be remembered as a “peacemaker” president. He has called ending the war in Ukraine the hardest foreign policy goal of his time in office. A successful agreement would be a huge victory, a thing he could point to for history.
So, the picture from the American side was one of hope and near-success. A diplomat, in his final weeks, ready to cross the finish line.
Then, from Moscow, came a different sound. It was the sound of cold water being poured on a warm hope.
The Kremlin, the centre of Russian power, responded to Kellogg’s words. Its spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, did not talk about the “last 10 metres.” He did not share the optimism. Instead, he said that for any deal to happen, there must be “radical changes” to some of the American proposals.
Think of it like two people trying to build a bridge from opposite sides of a river. The American envoy is saying, “I can almost touch your side! Just a little more!” The Russian side is looking at the American blueprint and saying, “The design is wrong. We need to change it completely.”
This is the heart of the matter. “Really close” and “radical changes” cannot both be fully true. One side sees the end. The other sees a new beginning of the talks.
To understand why this gap is so wide, we must look back. The war did not start in a day.
For eight years, from 2014 to 2022, a slower war simmered in eastern Ukraine. Russian-backed fighters in the Donbas region battled Ukrainian troops. Then, in February 2022, the simmer turned into a firestorm. Russia launched a full-scale invasion, sending tanks and soldiers toward Kyiv, the capital. The world watched in shock.
Cities like Mariupol were destroyed. Millions of people became refugees. The war changed the price of food and fuel everywhere. It became Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two.
Any peace deal must solve the problems that started this. It must answer terrible questions. Who controls the Donbas? What happens to Crimea? How does Ukraine stay safe? What does Russia accept?
When Moscow says it needs “radical changes,” it is saying the current American answers to these questions are not good enough for Russia. Russia likely wants its gains on the battlefield—the land its army now holds—to be recognized. It may want promises that Ukraine will never join NATO, the Western military alliance. It wants a deal that reflects its strength.
But for Ukraine, a deal that gives away land or limits its future is very hard to accept. The Ukrainian people have fought bravely and suffered greatly to defend their country. Their leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, has said Ukraine’s territory must be restored.
So, the American envoy is in a difficult spot. He is trying to find a deal both sides can accept. And he is trying to do it fast.
This is where history can help us understand. Peace talks are not like sports. There is no clear finish line tape to break. They are more like a difficult conversation that must end with a handshake. And for that handshake to happen, both people must feel they gained something, or at least, did not lose everything.
The word from Moscow suggests Russia does not feel that way yet. The “radical changes” they want are their price for ending the war. It is a high price.
What happens next? The coming weeks will tell. Keith Kellogg, wanting to finish his work with a success, will push harder. The Kremlin, watching and waiting, will decide if the changes are big enough. President Trump will watch, hoping for his “peacemaker” moment. And the people of Ukraine will wait, hoping for a peace that allows them to rebuild their lives.
The “last 10 metres” may feel like 100 miles. In diplomacy, the final steps are always the slowest. They are the steps where every word matters, where every demand is weighed. They are the steps between war and peace.
The world is watching, hoping the runners can agree on how the race ends.
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